Must Win For Tennessee As They Visit Reeling Houston Texans

Saturday, December 31, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Must Win For Tennessee As They Visit Reeling Houston Texans

Analysis:
The Tennessee Titans are on life support regarding their chances to reach the post season celebration but if they pull off a post-Christmas miracle, they will get a precious sneak preview of the team they would meet.

The Titans on Sunday visit the AFC South champion Houston Texans, who are locked in as the No. 3 seed but are hurting right now. After a disappointing loss to previously-winless Indianapolis on Dec. 18, Tennessee rebounded with a 23-17 win over Jacksonville this past weekend.

If Tennessee somehow tip-toes through a minefield of propitious scenarios, it would return to Houston next week for a wild card playoff game. Houston rolled at Tennessee 41-7 in Week 7 behind Arian Foster’s 234 yards from scrimmage, but that was with Matt Schaub at quarterback. He is out for the season with a foot injury, so the Texans will head to the playoffs with up-and-down rookie T.J. Yates.

After a disappointing loss to previously-winless Indianapolis on Dec. 18, Tennessee rebounded with a 23-17 win over Jacksonville this past weekend.

The Titans would not be in this position if not for last week's win over the Jaguars that was the 399th in team history, including the playoffs. Tennessee jumped out to a 10-0 lead thanks to Rob Bironas' 51-yard field goal and a 55- yard touchdown pass by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to tight end Jared Cook, and were able to hold on from there.

While the Texans have little to play for, they will take this opportunity to get ready for the postseason given that they will play in the first round. They also don't want to take a three-game slide into the playoffs after dropping back-to-back games to Carolina and Indianapolis following a seven- game win streak.

Houston held a 16-12 lead over the Colts in Week 16, but dropped a 19-16 decision after Indianapolis quarterback Dan Orlovsky found wideout Reggie Wayne for a one-yard touchdown pass with 19 seconds left.

Yates was solid in his first couple of outings for the Texans since taking over for the injured Schaub and Matt Leinart, but has struggled over his past two outings and hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in those games.

Arian Foster carried the Houston offense in that game, something he did very well against the Titans back in Week 7. In that 41-7 Texans' win, Foster helped Houston score 27 unanswered points and finished the game with 115 rushing yards, 119 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Houston is also expected to get two pieces of its team back for this game.

Wide receiver Andre Johnson is slated to return after missing the past three games with an injured left hamstring. That came shortly after a six-game absence due to a right hamstring ailment.

Also, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is expected to coach from the booth for the first time since taking a medical leave of absence for 10 days because of surgery on his kidney and gallbladder.

Tennessee has won 13 of 19 all-time meetings with the Texans, with the two AFC South members having split the season series in each of the past three years. Houston took the 2010 encounter held at Reliant Stadium via a 20-0 score, with Tennessee coming out on top as the road team the previous year by a 20-17 count.

The Titans, who were based in Houston as the Oilers from 1960-1996, are 6-3 lifetime against the Texans in their former city. The Texans have swept a home-and-home set from Tennessee just once in their history, back in 2004.

Gary Kubiak owns a 4-7 career record against Tennessee, while Mike Munchak -- a Hall of Fame offensive lineman for the Oilers from 1982-93 -- lost his only career matchup with the Texans and Kubiak in his present capacity with his team's Week 7 blowout defeat.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas

Last Week's results:
- Tennessee Titans (-7.5) beats visiting Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17.
- Houston Texans (-5.5) loses to host Indianapolis Colts 19-16.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Tennessee Titans (8-7) wins but does not cover
- Favourite Houston Texans (10-5) loses outright.

NFL Football Odds: Titans -2, O/U 40

Playoff Picture:
- Tennessee Titans: Tennessee clinches a wild-card spot with a win + a CIN loss + any of the following scenarios: 1) NYJ win + OAK loss; 2) NYJ win + DEN loss; 3) NYJ loss + OAK win + DEN win. COMMENT: Titans are still alive, but they need to beat Houston and get lots of help.
- Houston Texans: Houston has clinched the AFC South. COMMENT: The Texans are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host one of the following teams in the playoffs: Titans, Raiders, Bengals or Jets.

Houston Texans: Houston has clinched the AFC South. COMMENT: The Texans are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host one of the following teams in the playoffs: Titans, Raiders, Bengals or Jets.

Houston is No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed (280.7) and fourth in points allowed (17.0). It also has a team-record 41 sacks, sixth in the NFL.

Hasselbeck needs 147 passing yards to become the 25th player in NFL history to reach 33,000.

Johnson would join Earl Campbell (five) and Eddie George as the only players in club history with four straight 1,000-yard seasons.

Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Players can talk all they want about how much winning each and every week means to them, or how important it is, but that may be just words from a playoff-bound Texans club that has nothing on the line. Some big plays and heavy hits from the Titans would surely knock the desire out of the Texans and make things a little easier for Tennessee to keep its playoff chances alive.

The Titans will certainly see the Texans' dominating defense at full strength early, so they need to avoid falling behind and giving the Houston backups some cushion. That's hard to imagine happening in a game that means so much to the Titans and so little to the Texans.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Titans.

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afc south - andre johnson - arian foster - chris johnson - dan orlovsky - gary kubiak - houston texans - indianapolis colts - jacksonville jaguars - matt hasselbeck

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