NFL Pick: A Must Win State Awaits Buffalo Bills And San Diego Chargers
Sunday, December 11, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
Their playoff hopes are dwindling and so is the job security of head coach Norv Turner, but the San Diego Chargers are not about to give up just yet.
The Chargers seemingly proved that by ending a six-game losing streak at Jacksonville on Monday and now head back home on a short week to host the Buffalo Bills Sunday from Qualcomm Stadium. Quarterback Philip Rivers, the subject of many critics this season, turned in one of his finest performances against the Jaguars by throwing for 294 yards and three touchdown passes.
Rivers was not intercepted for a second straight game, and said afterwards the trust factor is still strong among the players.
San Diego will now try to stop a three-game home losing streak and avoid losing four in a row as the host for the first time since Nov. 4-Dec. 30, 2001. It hasn't won back-to-back games since a three-game winning streak from Sept. 25- Oct. 9 and is tied with Kansas City for last in the AFC West -- two games behind the division-leading Broncos and Raiders.
That standing in the division and the team's overall 5-7 record has led to speculation that Turner could be let go at season's end, which may haven't given the players some extra incentive.
The Chargers are scheduled to play two straight home games before ending the regular season with consecutive tilts on the road against Detroit and Oakland.
Buffalo's surprise start to the season seems like decades ago now that the team is mired in a five-game losing streak that followed a 5-2 record early on. The Bills not only have the daunting task of ending their slide against a high-powered San Diego offense, but also must put to rest a five-game losing streak away from western New York.
The Bills haven't recorded a road win since opening the 2011 season with a 41-7 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The losing trend and poor defense continued with last weekend's 23-17 loss versus Tennessee, in which Titans running back Chris Johnson single-handedly disposed of the Bills with 153 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries.
Chan Gailey's team sits one game in front of last-place Miami in the AFC East after being tied with New England atop the division standings at one point with five victories over its first seven games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick said it's hard and unfortunate to realize the team's current position after such a promising start, but has also been one of the reasons for the decline. He has thrown seven interceptions and just six touchdown passes during the skid.
Buffalo will play two straight home games after visiting San Diego and will close out the regular season on the road against New England.
San Diego has a 20-10-2 lead in its all-time series with Buffalo during the regular season, but the Bills were 23-14 winners when the teams last squared off back in 2008, which took place at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Chargers had bested Buffalo two straight times prior to that loss, including a 48-10 rout in 2005 in the Bills' most recent visit to San Diego. Buffalo also suffered a 24-21 home loss to the Bolts in 2006 and is 0-4 at Qualcomm Stadium since a 28-27 decision there on Dec. 6, 1981.
The Bills and Chargers have also met three times in postseason play. Buffalo defeated San Diego in both the 1964 and 1965 AFL Championship Games, the second of which was held in San Diego, while the Chargers registered a 20-14 win over the Bills at Qualcomm Stadium in a 1980 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Turner is 2-3 against Buffalo over the course of his head coaching career, with only the 2008 result coming during his tenure with the Chargers. His Oakland Raiders topped the Bills in both the 2004 and '05 seasons, while Turner's two other losses occurred while at the helm of Washington from 1994-2000. Gailey has never faced San Diego as a head coach but sports a 4-0 record in head-to-head bouts with Turner, with his Dallas Cowboys sweeping season sets from Turner's Redskins in both 1998 and 1999.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Last Week's results:
- Buffalo Bills (-1) loses to visiting Tennessee Titans 23-17.
- San Diego Chargers (-3) beats host Jacksonville Jaguars 38-14.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Buffalo Bills (5-7) loses outright
- Favourite San Diego Chargers (5-7) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Chargers -7, O/U 48.5
Next up:
- Buffalo home to Miami Dolphins, Sunday, December 18
- San Diego home to Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, December 18
Buffalo led the league in scoring through five games, averaging a shade under 33 points per game, but that mark dipped to 13.4 points during its five-game skid. After throwing seven interceptions in a three-game stretch,Fitzpatrick has not been picked off while throwing four TD passes in the last two. He needs 163 passing yards to match last season’s career high of 3,000. RB C.J. Spiller, subbing for the injured Fred Jackson, rushed for a career-high 83 yards in last week’s 23-17 loss to Tennessee.
San Diego matched its best offensive output of the season in blowing out the Jaguars. With his full complement of receivers on the field for the first time since Halloween, Philip Rivers threw for three TDs and 294 yards on 22-of-28 passing. The league leader with 17 interceptions, Rivers was not picked off for a second straight game. For his career, Rivers has posted a 21-2 record in the month of December. RB Ryan Mathews had his second straight 100-yard game and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
The Bills are making their only trip to the West Coast this weekend, and the cross-country flight could play a role in the game's outcome. Linebacker Kirk Morrison said it will give the team more rest since it's like playing a 4 p.m. (et) game back in Orchard Park, but Buffalo will still have to prove it can handle a long trek and knock off a San Diego squad coming off of a short week.
Can Rivers continue his recent run of successful performances versus the Bills? That is the main question for the Chargers' offense, since the quarterback dictates how the ball is moved nearly 75 percent of the time. Rivers noted how Monday's win was a major morale boost and believes the energy should be greater on Sunday.
Buffalo could be in for a long afternoon, since its defense is slacking in most areas. The Bills are 19th in pass defense, 22nd in yards allowed, 24th against the run and 26th in points permitted. They are hoping to avoid six straight losses since opening the 2010 campaign with an 0-8 mark.
San Diego has an NFL-best 19-1 record over the final four weeks of a season since 2006.
Buffalo, which last won at San Diego in December 1981, has dropped five straight road games.
The Chargers will be looking to avoid their first four-game home losing streak since 2001.
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The Chargers may appear to have their act in order again, though another win Sunday over Buffalo may do little for their postseason aspirations. They would need a big collapse from both Denver and Oakland in the final four games of the season, while likely having to win out the rest of the way in order to make a case for the playoffs. The season is all but finished for the Bills after the way they have been playing the past month or so, and facing Rivers this week will be their death knell. Containing the run has also been a problem for Buffalo, so this could be another 100-yard performance for Mathews.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Chargers.
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Tags
afc east - afc west - arrowhead stadium - baltimore ravens - buffalo bills - c.j. spiller - chan gailey - chris johnson - fred jackson - jacksonville jaguars
