NFL Vegas Prediction: Detroit Lions Travel West to Meet the Raiders

Sunday, December 18, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Ndamukong Suh - NFL Vegas Prediction: Detroit Lions Travel West to Meet the Raiders

Analysis:
Both the Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders will attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive in the two belligerents square off on Sunday. After a most promising beginning, the Lions has lost five of its last eight games overall and two straight on the road. But the Lions should get a lift by the return of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh following his two-game suspension for intentionally stomping on Evan Dietrich-Smith in Detroit's loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving.

The club went 1-1 without the flame- headed Suh despite allowing a total of 59 points. Oakland's postseason chances have dwindled thanks to back-to-back losses to the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay that dropped the California team one game behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. The Raiders, who have yielded 80 points in the two setbacks, are one of three teams that trail the New York Jets by one game for the final wild-card spot in the conference.

Both teams' hopes of lengthening their seasons may hinge on the outcome of Sunday's meeting at the Oakland Coliseum in one of the most pivotal games on the Week 15 NFL slate.

Detroit's playoff fortunes took a sizeable hit after a rough seven-game stretch in which the NFC upstarts lost five times to erase the momentum built from a sizzling 5-0 start to the season. The Lions were able to bounce back with a 34-28 triumph over doormat Minnesota last Sunday, which coupled with a loss by slumping Chicago that same day, vaulted the club into possession of the conference's sixth and final seed for the upcoming playoffs heading into the final three weeks.

The Lions, who haven't reached the postseason since 1999, presently stand one game ahead of the Bears in the standings, with Dallas also right on Detroit's heels heading into a Saturday showdown at Tampa Bay.

Detroit doesn't have the easiest of schedules the rest of the way, however, with a home date against a dangerous San Diego squad looming next week before it visits the unbeaten Green Bay Packers in the Jan. 1 finale.

Oakland finds itself in a bit of a tougher spot as it returns home off a rough two-game road swing in which was outscored by an 80-30 margin in losses to non- contending Miami and the powerhouse Packers. The consecutive defeats placed the Raiders one game behind scorching Denver in the battle for first place in the AFC West.

Rebounding from a mistake-filled blowout at the hands of the Packers this past Sunday will also be a prime objective for the reeling Raiders, a postseason non-participant in every year since 2002. Oakland turned the ball over five times on the afternoon, with struggling quarterback Carson Palmer throwing four interceptions in a forgettable outing, and was penalized 11 times for a total of 89 yards.

The Lions were on the opposite side of the spectrum in their clash with the Vikings, coming up with six giveaways and roaring out to a 21-0 lead in the game's opening 10 minutes. The offense scored just three second-half points as Minnesota mounted a fierce comeback attempt behind backup quarterback Joe Webb, however, but Detroit was able to hold on after coming up with a critical stop near the goal line in the final seconds.

At 8-5, the Lions are one victory shy of achieving a winning season for the first time since 2000.

Oakland holds a 6-4 edge in the overall series between these franchises, but Detroit has won the last two matchups in the set and came through with a 36-21 decision in its most recent visit to the Coliseum, which took place in the 2007 season opener. The Lions also handed the Raiders a 23-13 loss in the Motor City in a 2003 encounter, with Oakland last topping Detroit via a 37-21 home verdict on Oct. 13, 1996. The Raiders are 4-1 all-time against the Lions as the host team.

Both Jim Schwartz and Hue Jackson will be opposing one another, as well as their counterpart's respective team, for the first time as head coaches

Time & Venue:
- 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California

Last Week's results:
- Detroit Lions (-10) beats visiting Minnesota Vikings 34-28.
- Oakland Raiders (+11) loses to host Green Bay Packers 46-16.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Detroit Lions (8-5) wins but does not cover
- Underdog Oakland Raiders (7-6) loses and does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Lions -3, O/U 48.

Next up:
- Detroit home to San Diego Chargers, Saturday, December 24
- Oakland at Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday, December 24

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is looking to extend his streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 16. Detroit has won two straight meetings with Oakland after losing the previous four. Kicker Jason Hanson is three points shy of becoming the first player in NFL history to score 2,000 with one franchise.

Calvin Johnson, who leads the NFC with 12 TD catches, is one of three players with at least 12 touchdown receptions in three of his first five seasons. Hall of Famers Lance Alworth and Jerry Rice are the others. Detroit's six defensive TDs are the club's most in a season since 1967.


Oakland is tied with the Houston Texans for the AFC lead with 15 rushing touchdowns. Michael Bush is one rushing TD away from matching his career high of eight set last season. Carson Palmer threw a season-high four interceptions in last week's loss at Green Bay. Palmer has been picked off 13 times in seven games this season while throwing only nine touchdown passes. Palmer could have prime target Denarius Moore back Sunday as the receiver hopes to return after missing three contests with a foot injury.

How well Oakland runs the football will have a big say in which team wins this game. The Raiders are 5-2 this season when rushing for over 150 yards, including a 4-0 mark when gaining 162 or more, but 2-4 when failing to hit that benchmark. With a shaky Palmer at the controls of the offense and Detroit's defensive strengths lying in its ability to contain the pass and pressure the quarterback, it's imperative to Oakland's chances that Bush has a big day.

The Lions have had three takeaways in a game five times this year and won each of those contests, while the Raiders fell to 0-3 when turning it over three times or more in the Green Bay loss. Stafford's been somewhat prone to interceptions over the past month as well, and Detroit will be in a tough spot on the road if its quarterback is careless with the football.

These are two of the most flagged teams in the NFL, with Oakland having committed a league-high 130 infractions totaling 1,116 yards and Detroit third in penalty yardage (894) and fourth in number of calls against (105). The team that's better able to harness its aggression -- something that's especially been an issue for the Lions -- should have a distinct advantage.

Oakland has allowed the game's first 34 points in each of its last two losses.

Stafford is 246 passing yards away from becoming the third quarterback in Lions history to reach 4,000.

Stafford is 246 passing yards away from becoming the third quarterback in Lions history to reach 4,000.

Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Detroit is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Both of these playoff hopefuls have displayed deficiencies that the other can exploit, with the Raiders a stronger running team that could get well against a banged-up Detroit defense that's been incredibly submissive against the rush and the Lions holding a clear edge in the passing game with the combo of Stafford and Johnson.

Detroit may not have much of a problem getting on the board on an Oakland outfit that's given up 80 points in its last two games, but stopping the competition has quite troublesome for the NFC contenders for a while now. While the returns of Suh and Houston should help matters, neither will do much for solving the Lions' continued woes in run defense.

And when the Raiders run the ball well, they've usually been successful. In a clash of two very inconsistent participants, Oakland's advantage in that department and a potent pass rush that can disrupt Detroit's one-dimensional offense could end up providing the difference.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Raiders.

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afc west - calvin johnson - carson palmer - denarius moore - denver broncos - detroit lions - evan dietrich-smith - hue jackson - jason hanson - jim schwartz

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