Week 16 NFL Pick: High Flying Philadelphia Eagles Tackle On Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, December 24, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Philadelphia Eagles are still entertaining visions of winning the NFC East, but they must first take care of business against the division rival Dallas Cowboys on Saturday.
With convincing victories in their last two games, the Eagles have remained mathematically alive for the postseason – a thought that bordered on ridiculous after both their 1-4 and 4-8 starts. A loss on Saturday, however, will effectively end their postseason aspirations while putting coach Andy Reid on an already hot seat. For its part, Dallas can clinch the division with a victory over Philadelphia and a loss by the New York Giants this weekend.
Cowboys Stadium will be rocking for sure because Dallas' postseason hopes are also on the line even though it has a one-game lead over the New York Giants for NFC East bragging rights. The Cowboys stumbled a bit with consecutive losses before getting back into the win column with last Saturday's 31-15 blowout of the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tony Romo became the first quarterback in Cowboys history to throw for three touchdowns and run for another in the first half of a game.
The pressure will be on Romo the next two weeks against the Eagles and Giants, and Dallas can capture its first division title since 2009 with a win Saturday, coupled by a Giants loss. Having control of one's destiny is a nice pet to have, but it doesn't guarantee a single thing in this league. Romo understands what's at stake and knows the Eagles will be a tough out.
Romo added that this weekend is only about the Cowboys and scoreboard watching has no relevance on this upcoming game. The Giants and Jets play earlier in the day and a loss by the Giants could make things interesting in the battle for a division title. Romo said the Cowboys can only control what they do against Philadelphia and must come out and play cohesively. Dallas has done that in winning five of its last seven games and another victory will push the team towards its goal of winning a division title.
In order for the Eagles to capture their second straight NFC East crown, a lot of scenarios must fall into place. Playing with house money is what Philadelphia is currently doing right now and a slow start for Michael Vick and the "Dream Team" certainly made it a tough climb back into the playoff picture.
At 6-8 on the season, Philadelphia must beat the Cowboys on the road and defeat Washington at home on Jan. 1. It will also need the Giants to lose to the Jets this weekend, then beat Dallas in their last game at the Meadowlands. One player who has lifted the spirits of fans in the City of Brotherly Love has been running back LeSean McCoy. McCoy has enjoyed a Pro-Bowl type season and shared his thoughts on the Eagles' fight to the finish line.
Philadelphia has won two in a row and three of five games, and handed the Jets a 45-19 loss on Sunday from Lincoln Financial Field. The defense has been playing much better over the past few weeks with more blitz packages, better coverage and forcing turnovers. Defensive coordinator Juan Castillo, a pin cushion to criticism much of the year after his switch from offensive line coach, has found a scheme all the defenders seem to agree with. A few pieces were out of place at first, but now the unit appears more confident and aware.
Saturday's game will display several weapons from both teams and it's a matter of who executes the gameplan first in coming out on top. The Eagles will be playing for pride if the Giants top the local Jets earlier in the day.
Dallas holds a 56-45 advantage in its all-time regular-season series with Philadelphia but as previously mentioned, was routed by the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field back in Week 8. Philadelphia also edged its longtime rival by a 30-27 count during its 2010 visit to Cowboys Stadium and has left with a victory in three of its last five regular-season trips to Texas.
Dallas did sweep its 2009 home-and-home set with the Eagles, which included a 24-0 shutout in Arlington during Week 17 of that year, and came up with a 14-13 decision in Philadelphia in last year's regular-season finale. The Eagles last beat the Cowboys twice in a campaign in 2006.
Dallas has a 3-1 edge in postseason games against the Eagles, with the most recent playoff matchup between the clubs taking place at Cowboys Stadium in the 2009 NFC Wild Card round. The Cowboys claimed a 34-14 triumph in that contest and also came out on top in NFC Divisional Playoff tilts with Philadelphia following the 1992 and 1995 seasons, while the Eagles were a 20-7 home winner over Dallas in the 1980 NFC Championship.
Including the postseason, Eagles head coach Andy Reid has a career record of 16-10 against the Cowboys, while Dallas' Jason Garrett is 1-2 against both the Eagles and Reid as a head man.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Saturday, December 24, 2011. Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Last Week's results:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-1) beat visiting NY Jets 45-19.
- Dallas Cowboys (-7) beats host Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-15.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) wins and covers
- Favourite Dallas Cowboys (8-6) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Cowboys -1, O/U 50.5
Next up:
- Philadelphia home to Washington Redskins, Sunday, January 1
- Philadelphia home to Washington Redskins, Sunday, January 1
Philadelphia must win its last two games – and receive some help – in order to claim division laurels. In the Eagles' view, the New York Jets will need to upend the Giants on Saturday, with the latter rebounding to defeat the Cowboys in the regular-season finale. Last week, RB LeSean McCoy scored three times in a 45-19 victory over the Jets to break Hall of Famer Steve Van Buren's 1945 franchise mark for touchdowns. McCoy, who has an NFL-best 20 touchdowns this season, rushed 30 times for 185 yards and two scores in a 34-7 victory over the Cowboys on Oct. 30.
Romo spread the wealth last Saturday, throwing touchdowns to three different receivers in a 31-15 triumph over the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since losing to the Eagles, Romo has torched his opponents for 18 touchdowns against two interceptions. RB Felix Jones recorded his second straight 100-yard game since taking over for injured rookie DeMarco Murray. Jones missed practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday with a hamstring injury, but expects to play Saturday.
How much will McCoy and WR/PR DeSean Jackson contribute on Christmas Eve? McCoy is benefiting from solid play from the offensive line and hasn't been shut down too much this season. The Cowboys are 11th against the rush and even better in pass defense, sitting seventh in the league (270.9 ypg). Jackson has enjoyed success against Dallas and posted 210 yards on four catches, including a 91-yard score, in his last appearance in Big D.
The Cowboys will have their own weapons on display in Jones (if healthy), Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson. Eagles linebacker Jamar Chaney said Witten is probably the best tight end he's played against in his two years in the league. Philadelphia LB Brian Rolle added that he's the best at his position outside of Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez. Those are very flattering remarks for Witten, especially since Gonzalez is most likely headed to the Hall of Fame.
Romo has a tendency of exposing defenses and will try to do that against Castillo's unit. He is mobile in the pocket and can throw with accuracy on the run, an aspect of his game that could lead to problems for the Eagles. When plays break down, Romo has the senses to find an open receiver and it's usually Witten, who leads tight ends with 433 receptions for 4,978 yards since the start of the 2007 campaign.
Eagles DE Jason Babin has collected three sacks in each of the last two weeks to record a league-high 18 this season. He sits three shy of the 21 set by Hall of Famer Reggie White (1987).
Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware recorded four sacks against the Eagles in Week 8. He has 13.5 in his career versus Philadelphia, the most against any one team.
Eagles CB Asante Samuel is dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but expects to take the field on Saturday.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 13 games on the road
Focusing on the task at hand and controlling your own business were some of the insights Garrett discharged during his press conference leading up to Saturday's game. Unfortunately for the Eagles, having to rely on what other teams do was the hand they were dealt this late in the season.
It's uncertain which Philadelphia team will show up in Dallas since playoff hopes can be a lost cause if the Giants beat the Jets earlier in the day. The Jets should handle their business and remain focused towards the AFC playoffs, giving the Eagles some hope for a postseason run of their own.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Eagles.
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andy reid - asante samuel - brian rolle - cowboys stadium - dallas cowboys - demarco murray - demarcus ware - desean jackson - dez bryant - felix jones
